Hydrocarbons occupy a vital role in our life and continue to play an important role for many more years to come. We need to follow all technological innovations to continue our productivity standards to achieve our production targets. Let us extend our vision to achieve this mission.

Friday, September 30, 2011

UK 2Q Oil, Gas Production Declines, Imports Rise -Govt

Shipments of liquefied natural gas made up the bulk of U.K. gas imports for the first time in the second quarter as indigenous production saw its steepest ever decline, data from the Department of Energy and Climate Change showed Thursday.

The data show that, as some analysts predict LNG prices will revisit previous highs next year, there is little prospect for the U.K. to gain any respite from rising domestic energy bills.

Indigenous U.K. natural gas production fell by a record 24.8%, to 131.2 terawatt-hours, in the second quarter, the DECC said in its quarterly energy statistics. Net imports of gas were up 5.0% at 74.2 TWh, despite demand falling 17.3% on the previous year because of warmer weather and lower use of gas in power generation, it said.

Shipments of LNG made up two-thirds of total imports in the second quarter, the first time they has exceeded pipeline shipments, the DECC said.

Prices of LNG are expected to rise further because, since the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan has had to rapidly increase its gas imports for use in alternative power generation.

Prices on the spot market for LNG could revisit the highs of 2008 if around 80% of Japan's nuclear capacity remains offline, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said earlier this month.

"Government-mandated stress tests have stalled the return of all but one nuclear reactor" in Japan, it said. If the restarts aren't approved, "we estimate LNG demand growth in 2012 could reach 8.0 million tons."

"Should this occur, we see spot LNG prices next year rise to $25 per million Btu, similar levels as those seen in 2008, from $17 per MMBtu currently," it said.

The price of natural gas is closely related to domestic energy costs in the U.K. because it is widely used for home heating in the U.K. and fired power plants that generated 46% of the country's electricity in the second quarter, according to DECC data.

Rising energy prices in the U.K. have been a hot political issue in recent months, with gas and electricity market regulator Ofgem pushing for a Compeition Commission inquiry into the business practices of the main utilities.

Total indigenous U.K. production of oil in the second quarter was 15.9% lower than the same period of 2010, at 13.4 million metric tons, DECC said. Net imports of oil products rose 28.6% to 3.6 million tons, despite demand falling 2.1% to 17.3 million tons.

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Oil Field Services Shine

Oil Field Services Shine

Source: Dirk Van Dijk, Zacks Investment Research  (9/27/11)

"Squeezing the last practical drop out of existing fields also becomes more important. In other words, the oil service intensity of oil exploration and production is rising."


While the price of oil is off of its highs earlier this year, it is still running much higher than it was a year ago, and at levels where it is still very profitable for oil companies to go looking for it. While the Western economies have slowed, the emerging powers like India and China continue to see robust growth. They are at the stage of development where growth is very energy-intensive.

China is now the largest Auto market in the world, and virtually every one of the cars sold there represents a net addition to its auto fleet, rather than being a mostly replacement market as is the case in the U.S. and Europe. That means each car sold today will be burning gas for many years to come. Over time, however, the easy oil has been mostly extracted. Oil companies now have to search in more remote places and have to drill much deeper.

Squeezing the last practical drop out of existing fields also becomes more important. In other words, the oil service intensity of oil exploration and production is rising. That provides a favorable long-term backdrop for the Oil Field Service industry.

This is a secular growth industry. When people talk of technology in the stock market, they usually think of computers and chips, but the real meaning of technology is the practical application of science, and in that sense these are some of the highest of high-tech firms.

Zacks Industry Classifications

The Zacks industry classifications are very fine, with 256 different industries tracked. It is not particularly noteworthy if a single small industry shows up doing well; a single firm with good news can propel a one or two firm industry to the top (or bottom) of the charts. It is interesting when you see a cluster of similar industries at the top of the list.

The same holds true for the bottom of the list. The definition of size that matters here is not the total sales or market capitalization but the number of companies in the "industry."

Among the Biggest and Best

The Oil and Gas Service industry is much larger than average, not only in terms of the number of firms (34) but also in the market capitalizations of the firms involved. It is thus worth writing about on its own. It is currently in 23rd place, and improvement of 23 spots as its average Zacks Rank fell to 2.57 from 2.69. Significantly, the largest firms in the industry hold either number one or number two ranks.

There are 35 firms in these industry, of which three (8.6%) hold the enviable Zacks #1 Rank. Twelve more (34.3%) have Zacks #2 Ranks. If the Zacks ranks were random, then one would expect that 5% of the names in an industry would be #1's and 15% would be #2's.

Success Among the Smaller, As Well

The rest are all on the small side of mid cap, ranging down to firms bordering on micro cap size. The vast majority are easily in the investable range for individual investors, and even most institutions. Valuations, particularly if you look out to 2012 earnings, are attractive—particularly given the long-term tailwind that this industry has.

Every one of the Zacks #1 Ranked stocks has a single digit P/E based on 2012 earnings. The estimate increases for 2012 earnings are mostly even bigger than those for 2011 earnings.

The combination of rapidly rising expectations, low valuations and a very solid long-term thesis as to why these industries should have a very bright future for a very long time to come could well result in a gusher for your portfolio.

Oil, Investing, Dirk Van Dijk

In evaluating the Zacks Industry Ranks, you want to see two things: a good overall score (low, meaning more Zacks #1 and #2 Ranked stocks than #4 or #5 Ranked stocks) and some improvement the relative position from the prior week. It is also helpful to understand exactly what the Zacks Industry Rank is.

The Zacks Industry Rank is the un-weighted average of the individual Zacks ranks of the firms in that industry. It does not matter if the stock is the 800 lb gorilla that dominates the industry or some very small niche player in the industry—they have the same influence on the industry rank.

Also, that means that the bigger the industry in terms of number of firms, the less influence any given company has on the industry rank. It also implies that small industries, with just two or three firms, should be the ones found at either the top or the bottom of the list. After all, if there are only two firms in the industry, it is relatively easy to get a Zacks rank of 2.00 (i.e. one with a Zacks Rank of #1 and the other with a #3). Right now, that industry rank would be tied for 6th place among the 255 industries tracked.

The same obviously goes for the bottom of the list as well. If there are 50 firms in the industry, and it ends up at one of the extremes, that means there has to be something pretty significant going on. Thus, I do not always focus on the very highest rated industries, but on the highest rated ones in which there are a large number of firms.

http://www.zacks.com/

Musings: Is Capital Discipline Re-emerging in The Natural Gas Market?

The European financial turmoil is roiling global debt, equity and currency markets. These markets in turn are impacting commodity markets and creating significant near-term volatility. There doesn't appear to be much direction evident in commodity markets other than their reaction to global events. Weekly changes in crude oil inventories and natural gas injection volumes keep prices bouncing around. West Texas Intermediate crude oil seems to be bouncing between $80 and $90 per barrel, although a leading oil trader says the price action has established a pattern of lower highs and lower lows leading him to sell crude oil futures every time they rise and buy them when they fall until that trade doesn't work. 

The picture for natural gas prices appears less clear. A larger than expected injection of natural gas into storage was reported the week before last while a smaller than anticipated injection last week has kept prices unsettled. Natural gas in storage remains below year-ago levels and about in the middle of the five-year range. The weekly volatility reflects changes in weather and perceptions of industrial demand trends. Increased concerns about future economic growth, as highlighted by the International Monetary Fund's reduced forecasts for U.S. and global economic growth in 2011 and 2012. These reduced economic growth estimates suggest the key to any recovery in natural gas prices in the near term will depend on falling supply growth rather than a demand increase.

Exhibit 2.  Gas Storage Within Historical Range

We are approaching the end of the third quarter when E&P company managements will report their operational and financial results to the outside world and the start of the budgeting season when companies set their spending plans and operational expectations for 2012. Wall Street has begun to try to get a fix on the view of management toward the key issues that will drive capital spending next year. These issues relate to the outlook for commodity prices and production growth, and importantly their operating costs and capital spending requirements. As managements sort through these issues, some may be questioning their ability to continue playing the game as they have for the past few years. 

If you remember, U.S. E&P companies have been obsessed with capturing as much land as possible in the gas shale plays. With this land grab came drilling and production obligations that are driving capital spending. For many companies, the ability to finance this game in the face of weak gas prices and rising drilling and completion costs outran cash flow generation forcing them to hedge future gas production, enter joint ventures and tap capital markets. Hedging often forced companies to be aggressive whenever futures prices rose. According to traders we have talked with, this phenomenon continues. The greater challenge comes from companies' ability to find new joint venture partners and tap capital markets. Until this summer it appeared investors had an insatiable appetite to fund companies involved in shale plays. The love affair may be changing, and with it may come pressure to cut spending.

Encana, a Canadian-based E&P company, has indicated it plans to cut back its spending directed toward dry natural gas development and that it will sell assets such as its production and acreage in the Barnett Shale in order to fund its future spending needs. With the prospect of lower crude oil prices, and in turn natural gas liquids prices, even those E&P companies that pivoted toward liquids-rich shale plays and away from dry gas plays as gas prices remained weak are facing a possible squeeze on their cash flows. Rising drilling and completion costs are further straining budget projections. If a management has been properly focusing its drilling efforts for the past few years on the sweet spots in its shale acreage, the risk of losing acreage because of failure to drill leases shouldn't carry as much of a penalty now as it might have in the past.

A report from broker Bernstein Research focused on the costs, capital spending and financing condition for a large group of E&P companies. We have borrowed several of their charts, not as a comment on individual companies but rather to point out the challenges this industry faces and their possible implications. Costs for E&P companies are starting to rise, which signals a profit margin squeeze.  While some managers might say that their DD&A expense is less meaningful because it is not a cash expense, we believe that if one only focuses on the production cost segment of this chart he will see a relatively steady upward trend commencing in 1Q2009. The climb in this cost component in the past three quarters has been at a much sharper rate, which is a concern.

Exhibit 3.  Production Costs Are On The Rise

There is a difference in the cash costs of large versus small E&P companies, not a surprising trend, but the important thing to observe is the increase in the trend over the past few quarters for both groups. Larger E&P companies are better positioned to push back on the oilfield service industry's price increases, and we fully expect that to occur.

Exhibit 4.  All E&Ps Are Facing Higher Costs

With rising operating costs E&Ps are faced with having to cut back their spending somewhere unless they believe they can fund higher spending through tapping capital markets or finding new partners. Based on the data Bernstein analyzed, the large E&Ps have done a better job of controlling their capital spending versus their operating cash flows. Smaller companies have been less disciplined, but that probably reflects optimistic managements grasping for the brass ring of rapid asset and production growth. In certain environments, a strategy of relying on Wall Street to fund spending, while risky, may prove to be the ticket to building a small company into a large one.  On the other hand, a risky expansion strategy can lead to a corporate disaster. We believe that if capital discipline isn't returned to this industry, there will be disasters, the important question is how many?

Exhibit 5.  Large E&Ps Managing Capex Better

When Bernstein did its analysis of second quarter 2011 company capital spending versus cash flow, it found only 10 of 43 companies or 23%, had adhered to conservative principles. Last spring those companies might have been faulted by Wall Street for being too risk-adverse, but given the current economic and financial environment they are probably being touted as heroes. If financial conditions deteriorate further, they may be singled out as survivors.

Exhibit 6.  Small Segment Of Industry Conservative

While it is not evident yet that Wall Street is abandoning the E&P industry, as demonstrated by the annualized pace of capital-raising activity this year, the prospect of stagnant gas prices and squeezed profit margins is not conducive for an industry to be welcomed with open arms by investors. Companies that have demonstrated capital discipline are financially strong with less need to tap Wall Street and are positioned to capitalize on any turmoil in the E&P industry. 

Exhibit 7.  Capital Still Flowing Into Shale E&Ps

A recent presentation by the director of research of BENTEK Energy predicted that with a normal winter, his firm expects we will end this winter with a continued imbalance in natural gas supply and demand of 0.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Since it expects close to the same volume of gas to be in storage as last winter, BENTEK believes current futures prices for the first months of the upcoming winter season are lower than what will be generated in the spot market by supply and demand trends, but they also believe that futures prices are too high for the ending winter months. The volume of gas shale production growth continues to confound market analysts seeking a stop to production growth. 

An interesting point about the future gas market came in response to a question during the BENTEK presentation about the impact of hurricanes on Gulf of Mexico production and the growing importance of gas shales on supply. BENTEK has concluded that the impact of the 2005 hurricanes (Katrina and Rita) pushed Henry Hub natural gas prices up by $4-$6 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) to $13.  Today, BENTEK estimates a similar hurricane event would only move gas prices up by $1-$1.50/Mcf. This dramatic difference is due to the fact that since 2005 Gulf of Mexico production has fallen by 42% while onshore production has climbed by 38%. This development may signal that in the future, while Gulf of Mexico hurricanes will continue to be news and human safety events, they will have less of an impact on commodity prices. This is another unintended benefit from the gas shale revolution.

Exhibit 8.  Land Gas Production Continues Growing

 

Exhibit 9.  GoM Production Continues Falling

While investors are awaiting E&P company executive pronouncements about flattening or reductions in 2012 capital spending, analysts are focused on trends in the drilling business as an indicator of when production growth may slow and even begin falling. 

The U.S. drilling rig count was in a steady uptrend from the early 2000s until the start of the financial crisis and resulting recession.  Crude oil prices bottomed in early 2009 and began recovering. The pace of recovery was sharply faster than the pre-crisis rig count growth rate. That growth seemed to slow at the end of 2009, and even flattened in the last half of 2010, but then accelerated in 2011.  That acceleration was largely driven by the shift to crude oil and liquids-rich shale plays as crude oil prices soared in response to the civil unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. 

The shift between drilling for natural gas and crude oil is best shown by the chart below. It shows how non-Gulf of Mexico gas-oriented drilling actually declined in late 2010 and early 2011. The shift hasn't helped the gas supply picture because there are significant volumes of associated gas produced in liquids-rich plays and even with crude oil wells. 

Exhibit 10.  Rig Count Show Rapid Recovery

In our attempts to forecast how natural gas supply might grow, we have used the mix in the rig count (gas- and oil-oriented) to apply to the count of rigs drilling horizontal, directional and vertical wells. Presumably rigs targeting natural gas should be more productive than those targeting liquids-rich plays. The chart in Exhibit 12 shows non-Gulf of Mexico rigs drilling for natural gas by category of rig type.  What the chart shows is that since the end of 2004 there has been a steady narrowing of the count of non-vertical gas rigs and horizontal gas rigs. In and of itself, this is not a revolutionary point, but it can help explain gas production trend changes based on shifts in drilling rigs.

Exhibit 11.  Oil Drilling Surpasses Gas Drilling

If we look at what has happened to these two rig counts under this methodology since the beginning of 2011 we find an interesting pattern. Until recently, the peak in both rig counts was in late February. Since then, the two counts declined until mid August for horizontal rigs and the week before last for non-vertical rigs. For the last five weeks (through 9/16/11) horizontal gas-oriented rigs were at

Exhibit 12.  Horizontal Rigs Gaining Market Share

or above their February peak, despite the shift toward more liquids plays. Only in the very last week did the number of rigs drilling non-vertical gas wells go above their late February peak. Given this rig count performance, one would conclude that gas production will continue to grow. It is possible that the production growth rate may slow as older shale well productivity falls, but that is not assured.  Also, gas supply will be impacted by the completion of previously drilled-but-uncompleted wells, which appears to be happening as the service industry adds hydraulic fracturing horsepower to their fleets. We also hear that the number of fracture stages in newly drilled wells is not increasing, or at least at their historical pace. 

Exhibit 13.  Horizontal Gas Rigs On The Rise

This fall may be a tougher time for the energy business than anyone anticipated merely 30-60 days ago. The economic growth outlook remains cloudy. The unity of the European Economic Community and the solvency of certain members remain unclear. The political struggle in the U.S. will be ramping up creating greater uncertainty about future economic and tax policies. Unsettled capital markets will increasingly become risk adverse and thus less willing to provide funds to companies with less than rock-solid outlooks.  Producers of commodities will fall into the risky category, although commodities themselves may retain some of their safe-haven qualities, albeit at lower prices. That safety support should hold oil and gas prices sufficiently high that instead of a 2008-2009 energy market, it may look more like the May–September 2002 period when the rig count was essentially unchanged but the Philadelphia Oil Service Stock Index (OSX) fell by about 35%. Living through that period was trying, but that environment offered many attractively-priced energy stocks, assuming one had a long-term horizon. 

G. Allen Brooks works as the Managing Director at Parks Paton Hoepfl & Brown. Reprinted with permission of PPH & B.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Eni: More Libyan Oil Back, But Foreign Oil Labor Crunch Could Hit Libya

Eni's Libyan crude production could reach 140,000 barrels a day by the end of November, but the absence of foreign oil contractors is delaying the North African country's oil and gas comeback, the head of an Eni's joint-venture said Monday.

Eni's natural gas exports through the GreenStream pipeline to Italy are now set to resume mid-November, instead of an initial target for
mid-October, said Najmi Karim, chairman of Melitah Oil and Gas BV.

Eni Monday announced the restart of its Abu-Attifel field. Karim said Eni's Libyan oil production should reach 140,000 barrels a day by the
end of November, following the resumption of the Wafa and Abu-Attifel fields this month and the expected start up of the Bouri facility in November.

But oil and gas ramp up at the Wafa field--which supplies the pipeline--was hindered because "some [foreign] contractors are having
difficulty to mobilize equipment and personnel," Karim said.

Karim also said Libya could return to production of 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent by the end of the year, though that depended of the
resumption of Elephant--also known as El Fil--field. The status of "Elephant" is unclear, he added.

Marim said the company Monday had sent a team to assess the Elephant field, which accounts for 25% of the company's Libyan output.

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Friday, September 23, 2011

47 O&G Billionaires Make List of Forbes' Richest Americans

Forty-seven members of the oil and gas community showed up on Forbe's annual list of the richest Americans released Tuesday.

The 30th annual Forbes 400 list keeps Microsoft founder Bill Gates as the richest American, with a net worth of $59 billion, a $20 billion lead over the second richest, Warren Buffett. Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle, came in third with $33 billion.

Rigzone staff reviewed Forbes' list and identified all members in which oil and gas contributed to their wealth in current and/or previous positions. Of the 47 Forbes' list members with oil and gas industry connections, Rigzone's short list includes:

  • $234.35 billion combined net worth of Rigzone's short list
  • 3 sets of relatives with a combined net worth of $66.1 billion
  • 4 women with a combined net worth of $13.2 billion
  • 24 of the 47 short-list members Forbes' list their primary residency in Texas

According to Forbes' methodology, an individual's net worth had to at least be $1.05 billion to make the list. This does not include dispersed family fortunes but could include a member's immediate relatives if the wealth could be traced to a living individual.

Oil and Gas Industry's Richest Americans

Thursday, September 22, 2011

EDITORIAL: Daniel Yergin and Peak Oil - Prophet or Mere Historian?

On September 17, The Wall Street Journal published a fascinating article on "peak oil," "There Will Be Oil," written by Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research and consulting firm and deserved recipient of Pulitzer Prize for his 1991 book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "There Will Be Oil" "is adapted from his new book, The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World."

The essay will doubtless have widespread influence amongst prosperous The Wall Street Journal readers, but in his glib dismissal of "peak oil" theory advocates, Yergin glosses or ignores a number of issues fundamental to the larger picture, for whatever reason, and these oversights should be considered in any evaluation of the piece and the peak oil "specter."

Yergin notes, "Just in the years 2007 to 2009, for every barrel of oil produced in the world, 1.6 barrels of new reserves were added." But this fails to take into account the following points.

First is that for oil producing nations reserves are like money in the bank and inflated reserve figures are common. Even with the newest technology oil reserve figures remain at best "guesstimates" and should not be taken as hard and fast figures.

Secondly, while the Middle East for the foreseeable future will remain the world's top producing area, it is unhappily also one of the most politically unstable regions of the world. The "Arab Spring's" impact is still playing out, much less potential impact of Palestine's incipient bid at the United Nation's for recognition, both of which could yet still throw a major spanner in the works.

To recap briefly:

Saudi Arabia, the world's first or second-largest producer, vying with the Russian Federation for top position, is not immune from either of the two aforementioned effects. Saudi Arabia does not allow foreign oil companies concessions and has adopted a strict conservation policy, so don't expect to see a massive rise in production there anytime soon. As for Palestine's impact, last week former head of Saudi Arabian intelligence and ex-ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal in an essay in the New York Times warned that an American veto of Palestinian U.N. membership would end the ''special relationship'' between the two countries, and make the US ''toxic'' in the Arab world.

As for Iraq, eight years after the U.S.-led invasion, holder of massive amounts of untapped reserves, the country remains mired in a low-grade civil war and unresolved political issues between its oil-rich northern Kurdish region and Baghdad. Further east, Iran is most unlikely to boost production significantly anytime soon because of U.S. sanctions imposed in 1979.

Libya remains the wild card, with only 25 percent of the country's oil potential explored, but it has been wracked by six months of civil unrest, and the irredentist cadre of Gaddafi supporters could easily target the country's oil infrastructure in the future.

In the Western Hemisphere, OPEC recently announced that Venezuela's potential reserves could top those of Saudi Arabia, but the deteriorating relations between Caracas and Washington make an increase here unlikely anytime soon.

Many optimists pin their hopes on increased offshore production, from Brazil through Western Africa, the Mediterranean and the Caspian to the South China Sea but these regions' output will suffer from the twin curses of both greatly increased "lifting costs" in the billions as well as political instability. West Africa is synonymous with corruption and civil war; Lebanon, the Republic of Cyprus, Israel and Turkey are sparring over eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons; two decades after the collapse of the USSR Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan have yet to reach a definitive agreement on the division of the Caspian's offshore waters and tension is rising markedly in the South China Sea, where China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei are all pursuing contesting claims.

Of the aforementioned areas only Brazil has uncontested national sovereignty claims over its offshore deposits, and the government is sufficiently concerned about their security that it is considering building a nuclear submarine to patrol its offshore oil platforms. As for the rest, it is difficult to see how the nations involved will be able to attract large-scale investment into potential conflict zones.

Furthermore, quite aside from political wrangles, offshore drilling is both extremely expensive and comes with increased environmental risks.

Interestingly, the word "environment" appears only once in Yergin's essay, in the sentence, "Environmental and climate policies can alter the timing and scale of development, as can geopolitics and politics within oil-producing countries."

Given that the majority of the future's oil production increase will come from offshore developments, the term should have been given greater prominence.

BP's Deepwater Horizon Macondo oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico began on 20 April and spewed crude for three months in 2010 and was the largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry, dwarfing the 1979 Gulf of Mexico Ixtoc I oil spill. Since the Deepwater Horizon incident unleashed 4.9 million barrels of oil the Gulf of Mexico suffered another rig explosion and fire at the Vermilion Block 380 A Platform on 2 September 2010.

Across the Atlantic, on August 12, a British subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell announced a leak at a platform flow line in its Gannet field concession in the North Sea.

As for the BP leak, on May 12, 2010, California Democrat Representative Henry Waxman said that the House Oversight and Investigations subcommittee investigation into the Gulf oil spill revealed that the Deepwater Horizon Macaondo oil platform's blowout preventer (BOP) did not pass a crucial pressure test just hours before the explosion.

Waxman said, "This catastrophe appears to have been caused by a calamitous series of equipment and operational failures. If the largest oil and oil services companies in the world had been more careful, 11 lives might have been saved and our coastlines protected."

The Deepwater Horizon Study Group of University of California's the Center for Catastrophic Risk concluded in its "Final Report on the Investigation of the Macondo Well Blowout," released March 1, 2011, "At the time of the Macondo blowout, BP's corporate culture remained one that was embedded in risk-taking and cost-cutting...".

Tracking back the signs of incipient failure, on 28 February 2009 the Department of the Interior exempted BP's Deepwater Horizon drilling operation from a detailed environmental impact study after concluding that a massive oil spill was unlikely.

Four months later, on 22 June 2009 BP engineers warned that the Deepwater Horizon BOP's metal casing might collapse under high pressure. Seeking to spread the blame, in April 2011 BP sued Cameron International Corp., the maker of the failed Type TL 18¾in 15K double blowout preventer on the Macondo well, Deepwater Horizon drilling rig operator Transocean and Halliburton, the well's cement contractor, saying they were largely to blame for the accident.

There are 3,800 active oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico - how long until another major spill?

So, where does all this leave the world? Older producing fields and nations, such as Indonesia and Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar superfield have seen their production decline. Indonesia, which had begun producing oil in the early 20th century, saw its production slide so much that it left OPEC in 2008, seemingly confirming Marion King Hubbert's "peak oil" theory.

While it is true that Hubbert's predictions, made in the 1950s, took no account of future energy developments such as Africa, the Caspian and offshore, all of these regions and projects come with increased costs, which ultimately will undoubtedly be passed on to the consumers.

Is the world then running out of oil then? No, but the increase in future global oil production will likely be modestly incremental and production could be thrown off course by any number of possible events, from an Israeli attack on Iran to (another, but successful this time) al Qaida attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery.

Accordingly, it is inexpensive oil that is in terminal decline, a development viewed positively by Yergin, who writes, "Activity goes up when prices go up; activity goes down when prices go down. Higher prices stimulate innovation and encourage people to figure out ingenious new ways to increase supply."

Many American motorists would disagree.

(The original article appears here.)

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Wednesday, September 21, 2011



Wednesday, September 21, 2011

OFFSHORE September 2011 issue



FPSO Congress Roundtable Videos




FPSO Congress Roundtable Videos


Douglas-Westwood's Singapore Director, Jason Waldie recently chaired a roundtable with other executives and experts in the floating production industry at the Oil & Gas IQ FPSO Congress.


The roundtable covered topics such as the current challenges in FPSO developments, the contracting regime for FPSOs, developments in regulations and their impact on the offshore sector as well as the future trends that will impact FPSO developments. Other participants included Pacific LNG, Apache Energy, BP and the Con Son Joint Operating Company.


Douglas-Westwood offer market reports on the world floating production and floating LNG markets, these can be viewed here;


 

 

Established in 1990, Douglas-Westwood is an independent employee-owned company and the leading provider of business research and analysis, strategy and commercial due diligence on the global energy services sectors. We have offices in Canterbury (England), Aberdeen (Scotland) Singapore and New York (USA) and to date have completed more than 750 projects for clients in 70 countries.
Further Information

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

energy business advisors             douglas-westwood.com

 

 

 

Watch the roundtable videos now:

An introduction

 

Contracting hits and misses

 

 

Find out the FPSO sector can't ignore China?

 

 

The impact of FLNG on FPSO

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